Political Turbulence

On July 21, 2024, President Joe Biden dropped out of the Presidential election race culminating this coming November. At the same time, he gave his full support and endorsement to his Vice President, Kamala Harris, to fill his spot at the top of the election ticket. The announcement was a bit of a surprise, but not overwhelmingly. President Biden had been struggling not only with his campaign but also with support from much of the Democratic party since his less-than-decent performance in his debate with former President Donald Trump on June 27, 2024. His debate performance was bad enough that questions arose about whether he was losing his cognitive capacity. Within days, members of the Democratic caucus in the House of Representatives and the Senate started questioning his ability to continue his campaign run. Joe Biden’s interviews after the debate did not shift the conversation or provide substantial evidence that he was, in fact, OK to continue his campaign.

The damage continued to mount until Senate majority leader Chuck Schumer purposely confronted Mr. Biden in Delaware on July 13, 2024. In that meeting, Mr. Schumer allegedly questioned President Biden’s ability to continue his campaign for President. At the same time, Nancy Pelosi, former House of Representatives speaker, allegedly pressured President Biden to consider dropping out of the race. Those two individuals are considered by far some of the strongest voices in the Democratic party. The pressure against President Biden’s continued campaign was mounting, and polls in the U.S. started to illustrate the lack of confidence in the current President.

Former President Donald Trump, running as the Republican National Committee approved Presidential nominee of the Republican party, and his recently selected running mate, J.D. Vance, for Vice President, was taking a clear lead in the polls. As important, it appeared that Joe Biden’s continuing to remain at the top of the ticket was potentially causing concern with lower-ballot campaign races in the House of Representatives and the Senate. If that were true, then the odds of a full Republican sweep of all three branches of government become more realistic. It’s a very bad scenario for Democrats.

Legacy and Future

Joe Biden has served in the U.S. government since he took a Senate seat in 1973. That’s more than 50 years in government service. A remarkable track record of his long time in the Senate, then as Vice President for Barack Obama, and finally as the 46th President of the United States. That is truly a long time, and he has a definitive legacy for his service. Not everyone feels Mr. Biden was always on the right side of major issues, but that’s a risk for anyone serving in office. If nothing else, his commitment and love of his country seem unchallenged.

As far as the future is concerned, President Biden has thrown his full weight behind Kamala Harris to become the Democratic Presidential nominee. Although that is not guaranteed at this point, Kamala has gained substantial political endorsements and financial support since Joe Biden announced his campaign termination and endorsement of Kamala. Democrats seem to be circling Kamala very positively, which suggests she is on a path to becoming the nominee at the Democratic National Convention starting August 19, 2024.

However, the real concern for Democrats is whether Kamala Harris can take on former President Donald Trump and secure enough electoral college votes to win the Presidency. As important, can Kamala Harris’ role at the top of the ticket help protect the down-ballot races in the House of Representatives and Senate? We don’t know the answer to those questions yet. Early response to Kamala Harris has been very strong, which is to be expected partly because Democrats are relieved that Joe Biden has stepped down, and the potential party disaster that appeared to be brewing may be avoided. It is also partly because Democrats have a new, younger, more energized voice at the top of the ticket, providing a certain hopefulness to the campaign. There are no guarantees, but hope is good after the Biden-related panic. We’re sure opinions and polling will develop over the next weeks until the Democratic National Convention.

On a final note, we feel it is important to pass along the thought that we believe Joe Biden deserves great praise for his decision to leave the campaign. Joe Biden did not have to step down from his Presidential run; he chose to do so. We will never know whether he was pressured to do so, but even if he was, he had to make the final call. In doing so, he put the country’s future ahead of his personal goals. This is something to be applauded. Choosing to give up the path you chose to take is not easy. And we’re sure it was filled with great anxiety. Was it the right call? Most would say yes. 

President Biden’s path was increasingly difficult, and staying in the race would have left voters with limited options. Stepping down and allowing a younger, stronger person to enter the race takes a lot of guts and a willingness to put his personal ambitions aside. No matter what happens in November, and no matter which side of the aisle you fall on, we believe Joe Biden made a brave call to put his country before himself, and he deserves credit for it.

All the best,